THE SCENARIOS OF LIVESTOCK MOVEMENTS ON THE CITY OF BELGRADE AREA
Jonel Subić1 Drago Cvijanović1 Gorica Cvijanović2
1Institute of Agricultural Economics, Volgina Street, 15, 11060 Belgrade, Serbia
2Megatrend University Belgrade, Faculty of Biofarming, Maršal Tito Street, 39, 24300 Bačka Topola, Serbia
jonel_s@mail.iep.bg.ac.rs
Due to a better review of possible agricultural development of the city of Belgrade area, in regard to the middle-term period from 2009 to 2015, the analysis gave predicted two possible scenarios of future movements of livestock in this paper. The first approach tries to give an answer to the question: What could happen? The second approach tries to give reply to: What should happen, if we tend to realize specific strategic goals? The starting point of the scenario analysis is not to expect big annual changes in livestock number movements, untile they are not be real. Projecting the number of livestock in the city of Belgrade area had been done till 2015, according to available statistical data for the period from 1995 to 2005. Thereby, the analysis had been done for the most important types of livestock, observing the number and the economic significance (cattle, pigs, sheep and poultry). Taking into con¬si¬de¬ration that the number of horses and goats in the area of the city of Belgrade is insignificant, the motion trends of these livestock types number were not determined.
Keywords: scenario analysis; number of livestock; the city of Belgrade
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